Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 12.137889 13.910844 15.823864 18.037863 20.525899 23.231732 26.393355
2025-03-23 9.603359 12.015238 14.821905 18.314581 22.528575 27.432022 33.551893
2025-03-30 8.458453 11.190798 14.525807 18.867979 24.340898 30.976060 39.591373
2025-04-06 7.275247 10.132504 13.775373 18.716481 25.192915 33.335987 44.283835
2025-04-13 6.071295 8.862860 12.566111 17.778127 24.853149 34.041088 46.778418
2025-04-20 5.557803 8.449624 12.419006 18.184346 26.245870 37.003098 52.302700
2025-04-27 5.111267 8.069787 12.260947 18.527182 27.529316 39.841204 57.761058
2025-05-04 4.601438 7.537662 11.826814 18.421315 28.144112 41.757707 62.011285
2025-05-11 4.121454 6.996917 11.323475 18.156144 28.482315 43.266206 65.720260
2025-05-18 3.777063 6.629797 11.041947 18.184584 29.227429 45.362558 70.334494
2025-05-25 3.515501 6.367811 10.894779 18.394798 30.237588 47.870247 75.636762
2025-06-01 3.240789 6.055845 10.639006 18.406414 30.926814 49.912348 80.314826
2025-06-08 2.942900 5.682067 10.262208 18.210070 31.297736 51.521120 84.468391
2025-06-15 2.742253 5.459341 10.116972 18.378405 32.253120 54.067330 90.171140
2025-06-22 2.634895 5.392785 10.227381 18.972735 33.920511 57.786217 97.840535
2025-06-29 2.414280 5.094173 9.908877 18.807035 34.309337 59.476323 102.355812
2025-07-06 2.102142 4.588917 9.180243 17.869032 33.327904 58.886451 103.154717
2025-07-13 2.009118 4.503695 9.208113 18.275549 34.671070 62.160036 110.373619
2025-07-20 1.914827 4.406442 9.204548 18.620474 35.917556 65.316262 117.512809
2025-07-27 1.772234 4.195277 8.967287 18.513941 36.349095 67.104243 122.419280
2025-08-03 1.623937 3.956949 8.657904 18.247637 36.470528 68.355088 126.449406
2025-08-10 1.520664 3.805899 8.508828 18.276184 37.127885 70.553797 132.178934
2025-08-17 1.444125 3.706723 8.456293 18.487354 38.130997 73.393556 139.118939